By Andrew Macdonald
Antigonish Merger: County Councillor John Dunbar Not Surprised By New Poll Findings Reporting Majority Want a Plebiscite
A few weeks back, The Macdonald Notebook reported a national pollster, based in Ottawa found the majority of poll respondents want a plebiscite on a controversial mayor and warden led amalgamation.
A group opposed to the amalgamation of local governments, The Town of Antigonish & Antigonish County, called Let Antigonish Decide commissioned the poll.
Conducted in early February, the Mainstreet poll is the second poll on the matter in a year.
One question the polling entity asked: “Should the residents of the Town and County of Antigonish be given a vote on consolidation before a merger is considered?”
That question found a convincing majority of residents responded yes – 75.8 per cent want a merger plebiscite to allow the people to have a say in a merger/amalgamation.
Only 12.5 per cent of polling respondents said there is no need to hold a vote.
Another polling question: “How likely would you be to vote for your MLA, or the Premier, in the next Provincial election if a consolidation took place without a public vote?”
A majority said they were ‘much less likely’ to re-elect Antigonish MLA Michelle Thompson & Tracadie MLA Greg Morrow or Premier Tim Houston.
The per cent who would vote against those politicos registered 53.8 %.
Only 10.9 per cent said they would re-elect the government’s MLAs.
Antigonish County Councillor, John Dunbar, tells The Macdonald Notebook, he is not surprised by the poll findings.
First elected to council in 2016, he was unopposed in 2020.
“The results of the new poll do not surprise me. I talk to people all the time; many want to talk about consolidation. They don’t like how the process unfolded. I’ve said it before, in my District, I talked to as many people as I could on it. Some were in favour of consolidation, some were opposed to it. But well over half wanted more information and wanted to have their say in a plebiscite,” says Dunbar.
Antigonish County Councillor John Dunbar voted against a merger of Antigonish County with the Town of Antigonish. He is seen as a future Tory MLA, so his vote against the merger is seen as significant. (County of Antigonish image).
“In my opinion, those feelings grew stronger in the time from when both Councils agreed to explore consolidation in Sept 2021 to when we first voted to ask the Province for special legislation in Oct 2022 to create a new merged unit, and grew stronger from then until today,” he adds.
“There’s only one municipality in Nova Scotia that was created through consolidation, the Municipality of West Hants, in April 2020. It brought together the former Town of Windsor and the former District of West Hants through special legislation. In a “one year later” interview with the CBC in April 2021, West Hants Mayor Abraham Zebian called consolidation “an unmitigated success”. The very first thing he said about it was ‘our public has bought into it’”, notes Dunbar.
“If consolidation does indeed happen in Antigonish, will we be able to say that one year in? It’s good to be optimistic, but just as important if not more so, to be realistic,” says Dunbar.
Things unfolded a little differently in West Hants. Everything started with a citizens group – the Avon Region Citizens Group – that actually petitioned the NS Utility and Review Board to have Windsor and West Hants amalgamated into one. This process started in early 2016, months before the municipal elections which took place in October of that year. The Town of Windsor was in favour, the District of West Hants was not. It certainly would have been an election issue there in 2016, explains Dunbar.
“In Antigonish, no one was talking about merging the two units during the 2020 municipal elections,” adds Dunbar.
For the recent poll story, here it is presented from my recent archives:
- Antigonish Merger: New Poll Finds Large Majority Want A Vote On Amalgamation
The group opposing a forced amalgamation of Antigonish Town & Antigonish County has commissioned a new opinion poll on the controversial merger of the town and county.
The poll was conducted last weekend, (February 9th & 10th) in Antigonish.
Pollster MainStreet Research surveyed the people of Antigonish about the impact of passing a vote on consolidation without a vote by the people.
MainStreet is based in Ottawa.
Knowing a thing or two about polling, it is likely this poll cost between $10,000-$15,000. The poll was commissioned by Let Antigonish Decide, a group opposing the Antigonish Town Council & Antigonish County Council-led merger or amalgamation.
Quito Maggi, CEO of MainStreet Research stated: “Opinions on this matter appear stronger today than in March of 2023. We now see more than three-quarters of residents wanting a vote, and a majority of residents saying they are less likely to support their local
MLA and the Premier over this matter. These are both significant changes.”
His firm first polled the residents of Antigonish in March 2023.
Antigonish Warden Owen McCarron favours amalgamating Antigonish Town & County. Contributed Photo
The pollster added: “When asked this time if they “felt the Mayor and Warden provided enough information and listened to you about the proposed consolidation” only 22% said yes. 18.2 % were unsure with the majority
58.8% saying no.”
“This poll demonstrates that the Mayor and Warden totally failed to provide any level of confidence for a merger, with respect to the information they chose to share with the people they represent,” the pollster noted.
The town and county councillors held an emergency meeting in January to take a second vote on a merger, since the first vote took place in 2022.
Antigonish Mayor Laurie Boucher broke a three-way vote to merge town and county. She voted for the merger, or in other words voted for amalgamation, (Contributed).
Municipal Affairs Minister John Lohr requested the new vote because he informed the mayor and warden he is now prepared to introduce special legislation to amalgamate the town and county when the Legislature sits this winter.
“Despite having this resolution passed with a bare majority in the town which was decided by the Mayor’s vote, and by a one-vote majority in the county because one councillor was declared in conflict, this group is attempting to prevent the people from voting in the October 2024 municipal election! No mandate from the people and now they want to remove our vote until they finish their plan. This is outrageous!”, said Let Antigonish Decide spokesperson, Anne-Marie Long.
The poll surveyed 441 residents – the gold standard for surveys. Other polling firms might reach 800 or as few as 300 folks – so 441 residents being surveyed adds credibility to the poll’s findings.
The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews – or robo calls. Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the population in Antigonish by weighing by gender, age and educational attainment from the 2021 census, says MainStreet.
Poll Findings
One question the polling entity asked: “Should the residents of the Town and County of Antigonish be given a vote on consolidation before a merger is considered?”
That question found a convincing majority of residents responded yes – 75.8 per cent want a merger plebiscite to allow the people to have a say in a merger/amalgamation.
Only 12.5 per cent of polling respondents said there is no need to hold a vote.
Antigonish County Councillor John Dunbar voted against merging town and county. (The Notebook photo).
Another polling question: “How likely would you be to vote for your MLA, or the Premier, in the next Provincial election if a consolidation took place without a public vote?”
A majority said they were ‘much less likely’ to re-elect Antigonish MLA Michelle Thompson & Tracadie MLA Greg Morrow or Premier Tim Houston.
The per cent who would vote against those politicos registered 53.8 %.
Only 10.9 per cent said they would re-elect the government’s MLAs.
Antigonish Town and County is considering a merger being led by the Mayor and County Warden. (The Notebook photo).
As with the previous poll of March 2023, the results of the February 2024 poll are statistically significant with a margin of error at +/- 4.7% at the 95% confidence level.
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