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HRM Votes: New Poll Shows ‘Overwhelming’ Support for Andy Fillmore as Next HRM Mayor – But, And This Is A Big But…

Oct 6, 2024 | Politics

  • HRM Votes: New Poll Shows ‘Overwhelming’ Support for Andy Fillmore as Next HRM Mayor – But, And This Is A Big But…

By Andrew Macdonald

A new poll just released by MQO Research shows HRM Mayoral contender, Andy Fillmore has “overwhelming” support.

Way back in the second spot is Waye Mason, and Pam Lovelace is giving Mason a run for his money on the second spot.

But, the poll also reports significantly that “half of voters unable to name any mayoral candidate.”

So, if regional councillors Waye and Lovelace tap into that fact, the race has not yet been decided.

However, for Fillmore, the poll has good news: “Those with a preferred choice (are) overwhelmingly leaning Fillmore,” reports the poll, released Friday.

“A new poll conducted by MQO Research reveals an enduring level of indecision among voters about who should serve as HRM’s next mayor,” the pollster notes.

A new poll from MQO Research shows Andy Fillmore in a commanding lead with 29% support of decided and leaning voters. Waye Mason has 8 per cent and close behind him is Pam Lovelace with 6 per cent support among decided and leaning voters. (MQO graph).

The poll surveyed 383 eligible voters between September 24 and October 2, 2024. That is a sizeable sample of the HRM voters.

“Initial responses about voting intentions indicate 58% of respondents were undecided. After being
prompted with a ‘leaning question’, a significant portion remained uncertain, with 25% being completely undecided, but will vote, and 12%are undecided, not sure if they will vote,” says the poll.

“This leaves a combined 38% of voters still completely undecided as voting is set to begin next week,” adds the polling entity.

“The data suggest that name recognition is a primary driver of voter support. Initially, nearly half of respondents (46%) either couldn’t name a single candidate when asked to recall those running for mayor, or they named someone not actually in the race (such as the current premier of Nova Scotia, the current mayor of Halifax, or a current or former councillor),” says MQO
.

Andy Fillmore leads in name recognition, followed by Pam Lovelace, and Waye Mason. In politics, name recognition is a factor in how folks vote. (MQO Research poll graph).

Here is where Fillmore looks strong in the race: “When a current candidate for mayor was accurately recalled, 44% mentioned Andy Fillmore, 24% named Pam Lovelace, and 22% recalled Waye Mason.”

What is significant about that finding, is that Mason has been running for mayor for the last 12 years as a regional councillor. Lovelace has more name recognition than Mason, and she is a first-term councillor.

“Our research indicates a concerning reality: many do not appear interested in who the next mayor of HRM will be,” said Brenden Sommerhalder, Vice President of MQO Research. “With over half of voters initially undecided and unable to recall most or any of the candidates so close to the election at this critical time for our municipality, there’s a real risk that the election’s outcome will come down to gut reactions at the ballot box.”

When asked, open-ended, what the top municipal issue is on their mind as they consider who to
vote for, a one-third plurality (33%) mentioned the Housing Crisis and Affordability Concerns
followed by two-in-ten (20%) mentioning Social and Community Support Systems primarily
around tent encampments, food insecurity, and addressing poverty. Around one in ten (13%) mentioned each of Infrastructure and Public Transportation Improvement and Economic Management and Taxation, the poll reports.

Respondents were further asked to rate their level of satisfaction with HRM’s current approach
or performance on a set of issues.

“Results indicate deep dissatisfaction with HRM’s current dealing with unhoused people / tent encampments with 62% saying they have an unfavourable opinion of the handling of this issue (with 41% reporting a very unfavourable opinion),” says MQO.
.
“Approximately half of respondents also hold an unfavourable opinion of the current approach to
road conditions / maintenance (53% unfavourable) and Municipal taxation (46% unfavourable),” the poll adds.

Opinions about HRM’s performance with waste and recycling and Recreational facilities /services were generally positive, with pluralities holding favourable opinions on those issues, while opinions were more split about public transportation, urban development, and policing, the poll reports
.
“Responses were collected via online panel between September 24 and October 2, 2024.
Respondents were 383 confirmed eligible voters per citizenship and residency requirements, sampled and weighted to 2021 HRM census proportions. Online panels are considered non-probabilistic, therefore a margin of error cannot be calculated. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of 383 respondents would have a margin of error of 5%, 19 times out of 20,” explains MQO.

 

Andy Fillmore is running as HRM mayor.  A new poll says 29 per cent of decided or leaning voters will vote for him. Waye Mason has eight per cent and Pam Lovelace is at 6 per cent among decided or leaning voters. The Notebook/Avery Mullen).

Waye Mason leaned heavily on his experience as a Halifax councillor in making his case to debate attendees, directing viewers to his website for a detailed platform and taking aim at Andy Fillmore’s stances on homelessness and the housing supply.

HRM Mayor candidate Pam Lovelace. Andy Fillmore’s supporters believe Lovelace will finish the race in second spot. (Avery Mullen/The Notebook).

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