- MacPolitics: Poll In First Week of NS Election Shows Majority Terrain For Tim Houston Conservatives
By Andrew Macdonald
A poll released on Saturday finds in the first week of the NS election, that Conservative leader Tim Houston would win a “solid” majority re-election. The election is set for Nov 26th, 2024.
“The first Abacus Data poll of the campaign reveals that Premier Tim Houston and the Nova Scotia PC Party are in a solid position as they embark on their re-election campaign,” the poll stated.
“Our survey shows the PCs hold a commanding 19-point lead over the NS NDP, with 45% of committed eligible voters supporting the PCs,” adds Abacus, based in Ottawa.
The NDP and Liberals are virtually tied at 26% and 25%, respectively, while 4% support the Greens. Additionally, 25% of voters remain undecided, which adds a layer of uncertainty as the campaign progresses, the pollster says.
“These numbers suggest that if the election were held today, the PCs would likely secure another majority government.”
Breaking down support by region and demographics, the PCs are statistically tied with the NDP in Halifax (HRM) but lead significantly in other parts of Nova Scotia, particularly rural areas, where they enjoy a 30-point advantage, the pollster reports.
Regionally, the PCs and NDP are statistically tied in Halifax (HRM) while the PCs are well ahead in other communities across the province. The PCs also lead in urban and rural communities, although their lead in rural Nova Scotia is substantially larger (30 points vs. 12 points).
In HRM, the Tories lead by 38 points, versus 36 points for the NDP and the Liberals are behind at 24 points.
In Rural NS, the Tories lead by 53 points, the NDP at 21 points and the Liberals at 23 percent. In Urban areas, the Tories lead by 41 points, the NDP at 29 points and the Liberals at 25 points.
The PCs also perform well across all age groups but see their strongest support among voters aged 45 and over, adds the poll.
“Demographically, the PCs lead by a wide margin among those aged 45 and over, lead by a smaller margin among those aged 30 to 44, and are statistically tied with the NDP among those aged 18 to 29.”
Ages 18 to 29: Tories with 33 points; 34 for the NDP; and 24 points for the Liberals.
Ages 30 to 44: Tories with 40 points; NDP and Liberals tied at 28 points.
Ages 45 to 59: Tories at 52 points; NDP with 27 points; Liberals with 18 points.
Ages 60 and over: Tories with 51 points; Liberals with 28 points; NDP at 20 points.
“Across genders, Houston’s party garners nearly equal support, reflecting a broad appeal across the province. The PCs’ wide lead and strong demographic reach set a favourable foundation for Houston and his team as the campaign unfolds,” the poll finds.
“The PCs also lead among men and women with almost an equal share of the vote across both genders.”
Men: Tories with 46 points; NDP with 29 points; Liberals with 20 points.
Women: Tories with 44 points; NDP with 24 points; Liberals at 30 points
“The issues on voters’ minds—healthcare, affordability, and housing—are areas where the PCs are either leading or remain competitive. Among those prioritizing these concerns, the PCs are perceived as the best party to handle healthcare, affordability and taxes, giving them an advantage on three of the top four voter issues. While the NDP and PCs are closely matched on housing, the PCs’ strong positioning on these core issues suggests they resonate with voter priorities,” says Abacus.
The Issues
In terms of issues, healthcare, affordability, and housing are the top three issues that Nova Scotians say will most impact their vote. Reducing taxes is also high up on the list, the poll reports.
Fixing healthcare: 71 points
Making Life more affordable: 65 points
Improving housing and homelessness: 49 per cent
Reducing taxes: 38 points
“When we compare top issues by current party supporters, we see some differences. PC supporters are more likely to rate reducing taxes as a top issue as well as defending Nova Scotia’s interests in Ottawa. Liberal supporters are more likely to rate affordability and managing population growth while NDP supporters are more likely to rate housing and homelessness.”
“That being the top two issues regardless of party are fixing healthcare and making life more affordable,” the poll notes.
“Tim Houston’s personal image and the motivation of his supporters further bolster the PC Party’s prospects. With a relatively positive net score of +4, Houston is the most recognized leader, with 74% of voters reporting a good understanding of who he is.”
The Leaders
When it comes to the leaders, most Nova Scotians have a pretty good idea of who Tim Houston is. 74% say they have a very or pretty good idea of who he is and what he stands for. In contrast, only 47% feel the same way about Liberal Leader Zach Churchill and 37% have a good sense of NDP Leader Claudia Chender, the poll reports.
“The campaign could matter if the opposition leaders can better introduce themselves to Nova Scotians. If they can, views may also change if as people get to know Churchill and Chender, they come to like them.”
“When we ask Nova Scotians their impressions of the party leaders, Premier Houston is viewed positively by 38% and negatively by 34% for a net score of +4. In comparison, Liberal Leader Zach Churchill is +11 and NDP Leader Claudia Chender is +21. But many people in Nova Scotia either don’t know the opposition leaders well or have a neutral view of them,” adds Abacus.
“For context, we also find that neither Justin Trudeau nor Pierre Poilievre are particularly well-liked in Nova Scotia. The Prime Minister’s net favourable is -33 while Pierre Poilievre’s is -16.”
Moreover, the PCs benefit from a highly motivated base, with 65% of their supporters expressing extreme motivation to vote. While this support gives Houston an initial turnout advantage, it is also noteworthy that a consolidation of “change voters” around the NDP or Liberals could alter the dynamics, the pollster explains.
Early Vote:
The Early Election Call
“We also asked Nova Scotians how they feel about the early election call. The Premier called the election despite the fixed election date law his government passed set the next election to be in July 2025,” the pollster explains.
“Overall, few Nova Scotians said they are unhappy or angry about the early call. 27% say they are unhappy (15%) or angry (12%) while a slightly larger proportion say they are thrilled or happy (29%). The rest, 45%, are indifferent.”
What else explains the Tories’ Dominant Position in NS
“#1 – The desire for change isn’t high or intensive enough to seriously challenge the PCs,” says the pollster.
“During the first week of the campaign, the desire for change isn’t sufficient to be a serious liability for the incumbent PCs. Today, 50% definitely want to see a change in government while 20% definitely want to see the PC government re-elected. Everyone else is in the middle – either wanting change or keeping the government in power – but not caring too much about the outcome.”
“To help set the context for this, we compare the results in Nova Scotia with some previous elections we have comparable data for. When we look at the elections in which the incumbents were re-elected – BC 2024, Ontario 2022, Federal 2021, the desire for change is comparable.”
For the elections where incumbents were defeated – Ontario 2018 or Federal 2015, the desire for change was much higher, explains the pollster.
“One of two things have to happen if a PC win is going to be threatened:
“(1) Change voters need to consolidate around either the Liberals or NDP. Right now neither is winning the “change” primary, or
“(2) More voters need to intensely want a change in government.
“#2 – The PCs lead or are ahead or competitive on all four of the top issues.
“As mentioned earlier, fixing healthcare, affordability, housing, and taxes are the top four most salient issues at the moment,” says Abacus.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 600 eligible voters in Nova Scotia from October 28 to 31, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20, and the data were weighted to reflect Nova Scotia’s population by age, gender, education, and region.
