By Andrew Macdonald
A new poll from Abacus Data says the Progressive Conservatives are still the front runners at the halfway mark for the Nov. 26 provincial election.
The Tories have a 22-point lead over the second-place Liberals, and their lead is widening.
“The results indicate that the Nova Scotia PC Party and Premier Tim Houston have increased their lead over the opposition parties, with the campaign having yet to fundamentally shift preferences or opinions about the political choices in Nova Scotia,” reports Abacus.
The Issues
“Fixing healthcare, affordability and housing remain the top three issues likely to impact the way Nova Scotians vote on election day, but the salience of those issues has dropped a bit since our first survey, with other issues like cutting taxes staying the same and population growth appearing to gather steam,” said the pollster.
“Since our first Nova Scotia election survey, healthcare as a top issue is down five points, affordability is down three points, and housing is down three points,” the poll adds.
Cutting taxes finishes fourth again, with no change since the first survey.
“And population growth is up three points, growing the economy is up two points, and fighting climate change is up six points.”
When voters who identify healthcare, affordability, housing and/or reducing taxes as their top issues are asked which party they think will be best able to handle those issues, the PCs finish first on three of the four top issues. They lead the Liberals and NDP by 15 points on fixing healthcare, lead the NDP by 10 points on “making life more affordable”, and lead the Liberals by 12 points on reducing taxes, adds the pollster.
Only on “improving housing and reducing homelessness” do the PCs slightly trail the NDP (28 per cent to 25 per cent).
“The PCs also lead among people who identify growing the economy and creating good jobs, managing population growth, and improving roads as their top issues.”
However, the PCs are in fourth place for Nova Scotians who rate climate change and the environment as a top issue. The Greens lead on that issue.
The Leaders
“Our second election survey also confirms that Tim Houston is well-known to voters. Seventy-three per cent of eligible voters currently feel they have a very good or pretty good idea who the incumbent premier is and what he stands for, remaining high overall and high in most segments,” says Abacus.
“Familiarity with Liberal leader Zach Churchill and NDP leader Claudia Chender has improved a little bit since the first week of the election, but remains much lower than it is for Tim Houston,” reports the poll.
“While the same proportion (48 per cent) of voters have at least a pretty good idea of who Zach Churchill is (unchanged from the start of the campaign), there has been a five-point decrease in those who say they don’t know much about him at all (26 per cent to 21 per cent).”
For NDP leader Claudia Chender, “we see a similar change. Familiarity with Claudia Chender as a person and a leader is the same as it was at the start of the campaign (36 per cent vs. 37 per cent), but the proportion of those who don’t know her at all is down five points (28 per cent to 23 per cent).
“When we ask Nova Scotians about their impressions of the party leaders, Tim Houston continues to be viewed positively by 37 per cent of eligible voters (only down one point since our first survey) and negatively by 29 per cent (down five) for a net score of plus-eight, representing an improvement since the start of the campaign.”
“In comparison, Liberal leader Churchill is plus-six (down since the start) and NDP Leader Claudia Chender is plus-26 (an improvement),” adds Abacus.
“This set of results also confirms that neither (Prime Minister) Justin Trudeau nor (Conservative leader) Pierre Poilievre is well-liked in Nova Scotia. The prime minister’s net favourable is minus-32 while Pierre Poilievvre’s is minus-14 in the province.”
The desire for change has also lessened a bit.
“In our first Nova Scotia election poll, 50 per cent of eligible voters told us they definitely wanted to see a change in government in Nova Scotia. Today, that figure is 46 per cent (down four points). And those who definitely want to see the Houston PC government re-elected is holding steady at 20 per cent,” says Abacus
“This is more good news for the PCs, with these trends as well as the slightly higher voter intentions, favouring them to win the election,” the pollster notes.
“The desire for change in Nova Scotia right now is also about the same as it was in British Columbia where the incumbent NDP recently eked out a victory.
“Even among those who definitely want to see a change in government, 16 per cent of eligible voters in Nova Scotia still say they plan to vote PC, an increase of seven points since the start of the campaign.”
And the NDP and Liberals currently split the-solid-change-vote 30 per cent to 27 per cent for the NDP.
The Undecided
“What is much less clear is which direction eligible voters who have not made their minds up yet will go.
“With less than two weeks remaining in the provincial election, 22 per cent of all eligible voters in Nova Scotia remain ‘undecided’ and a significant proportion of voters who are definitely wanting a change in government remain undecided, representing about 10 per cent of the total electorate.”
If these groups consolidate around one opposition party, the PC margin could shrink substantially, lifting that party to second place or maybe even better, points out the pollster.
“It is also important to note that in the last provincial election, 35 per cent of current ‘strong-change’ voters voted Liberal, 14 per cent voted PC, 6 per cent NDP, and 35 per cent didn’t vote.”
Every election is different, however, and the Liberals and NDP also had other leaders in 2021, with Zach Churchill and Claudia Chender leading their first provincial campaigns, the pollster explains.
Tim Houston leads by 15 on ‘best premier’
“When we ask Nova Scotians which of the party leaders they think would make the best premier, Tim Houston continues to finish far ahead of the other party leaders: 35 per cent pick the current premier, 20 per cent chose Liberal leader Zach Churchill, while 18 per cent select NDP leader Claudia Chender, and 25 per cent are unsure,” adds Abacus.
And Now, Vote Choice: PCs lead by 22
All of these metrics lead to a larger PC lead than we measured earlier in the campaign, notes the poll.
“If the election was held today, the PCs would likely win a larger majority than they won in 2021. Forty-seven per cent of committed Nova Scotians would vote PC (up two since our last survey), 25 per cent would vote Liberal (unchanged), while 23 per cent would vote NDP (down three). Fouir per cent would vote Green, and 22 per cent say they are undecided down three from our first survey,” the poll reports.
Regionally, the PCs and NDP remain statistically tied in Halifax (HRM) while the PCs lead by 33 points in other parts of the province. The PCs also lead in urban and rural communities, although their lead in rural Nova Scotia is substantially larger (30 points vs.18 points).
“Demographically, the PCs lead by a wide margin among those aged 45 and over, lead by a smaller margin among those aged 30 to 44, and are statistically tied with the NDP among those aged 18 to 29.”
The PCs also lead among men and women with almost an equal share of the vote across both genders.
The Enthusiasm Gap has Closed
Earlier in the campaign, we noted that the PCs had an advantage over the other parties because their voters seem more enthusiastic to vote. That ‘enthusiasm gap’ seems to have shrunk, suggests Abacus.
“Among the 51 per cent of the electorate who tell us that they are ‘extremely motivated’ to vote, the PCs have a smaller lead than across the entire electorate – 45 per cent to 29 per cent for the Liberals and 21 per cent for the NDP.
“Today, 60 per cent of Liberal supporters say they are extremely motivated to vote (up 11) compared with 49 per cent of PC supporters (down 16) and 47 per cent of NDP supporters. (down five),” the poll reports
“These motivated Liberal supporters tend to be more female (63 per cent), 78 per cent have a post-secondary education, and 76 per cent of them voted for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in 2021. Could this be a Trump-effect in Nova Scotia? We don’t have enough evidence to validate this theory, but it’s something we will continue to watch,” notes Abacus.
Although enthusiasm among PC supporters may be down, they continue to be firmer in their support than other party supporters. Sixty per cent of PC supporters say they will not change their mind. They already know they are voting PC. Fifty-three per cent of Liberal voters and 36 per cent of NDP voters responded the same way.
Second Choice Preferences
“When we ask people with a vote preference which party is their second choice, we find that one in three PC supporters say they don’t have a second choice. Another 31 per cent say the NDP is their second choice, and 23 per cent point to the Liberals.
“Among Liberal supporters, 56 per cent say their second choice is the NDP, while 30 per cent say the PCs.
“For NDP supporters, 45 per cent say the Liberals, 32 per cent say the Greens, while 17 per cent say the PCs.”
These results make consolidation of the not-PC vote unlikely given the fragmentation of the second-choice preferences among NDP and Liberal supporters.
Who do Nova Scotians think will win the election?
“Half of Nova Scotians believe that the PCs will win the provincial election, a three-point increase from our last survey. Sixteen per cent think the Liberals will win and only six per cent expect an NDP victory,” the poll adds.
Upshot
According to Kelly Bennett, VP Atlantic for Abacus: “Tim Houston and his PC party started the provincial election riding high in the polls and that advantage continues to grow. The PCs have increased their committed voter numbers by two points in the last week, inching closer to the 50 per cent mark, while the other parties continue to battle it out for second place.
“If the provincial election was held today, Tim Houston and the PCs would likely win a larger majority than they did in 2021.
“In the final two weeks of the campaign, it will be interesting to see which direction undecided voters decide to move in. If they turnout, their choice could close the gap with the PCs and put one of the main opposition parties ahead of the other,” says Bennett.
According to David Coletto, CEO at Abacus: “As we pass the halfway mark of the campaign, the Nova Scotia PCs and Tim Houston remain in the driver’s seat. The desire for change is not threatening, the premier is relatively well-liked, and neither of the opposition parties have been able to consolidate the change vote, at least up until this point.”
“However,” adds Coletto, “some of the other things we are seeing should concern the PC campaign. Enthusiasm among PC supporters has dropped a little bit, perhaps as complacency begins to set in. Most voters think the PCs are going to win the election.
“Ten per cent of the electorate definitely wants a change in government, but is still undecided about how they will vote. If all or most of this group were to rally around one of the opposition parties, that would put a serious dent in the PC lead and at least determine second place.
“If the PCs do win and expand their vote share from the last election, they would be one of the very few incumbent governments in the democratic world to survive what I call ‘inflationitis’ and increase their vote share,” the pollster says.
“Everything considered, we should still expect a large Progressive Conservative majority government to be elected on Nov. 26. What is more unknown is which party will form the official opposition.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 600 eligible voters in Nova Scotia from Nov. 7 to 10. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete it. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.1 per cent 19 times out of 20.
