By Andrew Macdonald
Over half of eligible Nova Scotian voters who have made up their minds would prefer incumbent Progressive Conservative premier Tim Houston stay in the role, according to a new poll by Halifax-based MQO Research.
“Fifty-one per cent of decided voters in the latest survey say they most prefer Houston to be the next premier of Nova Scotia, followed by 25 per cent for NDP leader Claudia Chender and 19 per cent for Zach Churchill, the current Liberal leader. Six per cent would prefer Green Party leader Anthony Edmonds, says MQO, a division of agency business M5.
“Support for Tim Houston and his PC party appears to be broad and deep as we move toward election day,” said Brenden Sommerhalder, vice-president of MQO Research.
“It would take a truly significant event or set of events for the other party leaders to catch up. Nothing is impossible with two weeks left to go. In 2021, Houston’s PCs came from behind to win a majority during the writ period, but at this point any outcome other than another majority government for Premier Houston would be a major upset,” the pollster adds.
On the ballot-choice question, the leaders’ parties fare similarly with 47 per cent of decided and leaning voters saying they would vote for the PC candidate in their riding, while 24 per cent of MLA votes would go to the NDP, 20 per cent to the Liberals, and seven percent to the Green Party.
“The PCs enjoy broad support across the province, with dominant numbers in Annapolis Valley (58 per cent choosing them vs. Liberals’ 20 per cent and NDP’s 14 per cent), North Shore (PC: 52 per cent, NDP: 18 per cent, Liberal:13 per cent), Cape Breton (PC: 52 per cent, Liberal: 23 per cent, NDP: 16 per cent), and suburban HRM (PC: 44 per cent, NDP: 29 per cent, Liberal: 18 per cent),” the pollster says.
The ruling party holds comfortable leads in the Southern region (PC: 48 per cent, NDP: 27 per cent, Liberal: 21 per cent) and HRM overall (PC: 40 per cent, NDP 31 per cent, Liberal: 20 per cent), and hold a slight edge in urban HRM (PC: 38 per cent, NDP: 36 per cent, Liberal: 19 per cent)..
“Support for the PCs is also robust across generations, with pluralities preferring Mr. Houston’s party among all age cohorts, including majority support among all cohorts aged 60 and older. The NDP are in contention to be the favourite among Gen Z voters, trailing the PCs by just three percentage points among those aged 18-27.
“However, while voters say they are willing to send Mr. Houston back to the premier’s chair, they also have a to-do list for him, with respondents being nearly split on whether they are satisfied (44 per cent) or dissatisfied (38 per cent) with the current government’s performance.”
When asked to rank how important a set of issues are to them as they consider who to vote for, “Cost of living and affordability (38 per cent ), healthcare services and accessibility (28 per cent), and housing costs and availability (14 per cent) are top of mind, with all other issues receiving minimal share of attention for most voters,” says MQO.
“Voters are not particularly generous when asked their opinion about the current government’s approach or performance across these issues: Housing costs and availability (67 per cent unfavourable), cost of living and affordability (66 per cent unfavourable), Dealing with unhoused people / tent encampments (54 per cent unfavourable), and healthcare services and accessibility (52 per cent unfavourable),” the pollster explains
“Despite high levels of dissatisfaction on the handling of voters’ most important issues, the large proportion of voters who support giving Tim Houston another term as premier tend to cite his performance on the job as a reason they support him,” said Sommerhalder. “This suggests that, although voters may not be content with the current state of affairs in Nova Scotia, they credit the premier with ‘work in progress’ and believe he is best suited to continue to lead the province.”
Respondents were 396 confirmed eligible voters per citizenship and residency requirements, so the poll would have a margin of error of five per cent, 19 times out of 20.
