- MacPolitics: Poll: Pierre Polievre Conservatives Lead By 11 Points In Atlantic
By Andrew Macdonald
A new political poll from Abacus Data, shows the federal Conservative Party of Canada and its leader, Pierre Poilievre lead by 11 points in the Atlantic region.
Since 2015, the Atlantic has been considered Fortress Liberal.
The poll shows the Conservatives lead by 40 per cent in the Atlantic, with the Justin Trudeau Liberals registered at 29 per cent. The NDP have 25 per cent support in this region.
“Our latest survey conducted from November 14 to 19, 2024, reveals no discernible “Trump bump” for the Liberals following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election,” says Abacus.
“If an election were held today, the Conservatives would dominate with 43% of committed voters, while the Liberals and NDP are tied at 21% nationally—the first time we have seen this since the Liberals were elected in,” the pollster adds.
“The Conservatives hold commanding leads across all regions except Quebec, where the Bloc Québécois leads with 36%. Outside Quebec, the NDP has edged slightly ahead of the Liberals (23% to 21%), highlighting growing challenges for the Liberal Party.”
Demographically, the Conservatives lead among all age groups and genders, with the gap largest among older voters, finds Abacus.
Among millennials, Liberal support has plummeted to just 15%, the lowest recorded for this generation, the poll reports.
“The mood of the country remains pessimistic, with only 24% of Canadians believing the country is on the right track, and the federal government’s approval rating holding steady at a low 25%.”
While views of Pierre Poilievre and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh have seen minor positive shifts, Justin Trudeau’s approval remains unchanged at a net -38.
“More than half of Canadians now expect a Conservative victory in the next federal election, underscoring the growing momentum behind Pierre Poilievre’s party,” says Abacus.
From November 14 to 19, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,915 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
“For the first time in our tracking since the Liberals were elected in 2015, we have the Liberals and NDP numerically tied for second place.”
Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 9 in BC, 38 in Alberta, 31 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 23 points in Ontario, and by 11 in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of the Conservatives by 13 with the Liberals two points further back, reports Abacus.
Outside of Quebec, the NDP is slightly ahead of the Liberals (23% to 21%) with 48% voting Conservative.
Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women although their margin among younger continues to be smaller than older cohorts.
Of note, among millennials, only 15% say they will vote Liberal – the lowest we have measured Liberal support among that generation.
45% of men would vote Conservative compared with 40% of women.
The Conservative lead is larger again among those who say they are most certain to vote – 45% to 21%. The BQ’s vote share increases even more in Quebec since its support is more concentrated among older Quebecers.
“The mood of the country has deteriorated slightly with only 24% thinking the country’s headed in the right direction. We have seen an increase in Canadians who think the United States is headed in the right direction, up 7 to 22% while those who think the world is off on the wrong track is up 6 to 72%,” the poll results show.
The federal government’s approval rating has not changed much.
“Today, 25% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (unchanged) while disapproval is down one to 61%.”
Today, 23% (unchanged) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 61% (unchanged) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, for a net score of -38.
And we also find that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s negatives remain higher than they have historically been but his positives are trending upward from 29% in September to 32% today. His net favourability score is -7.
Views of Pierre Poilievre remain mixed. 40% have a positive view (up 2) while 37% have a negative view (down 1) for a net score of +3. Trump’s election has had no impact on views towards Pierre Poilievre, the pollster says.
Those expecting the Conservatives to win the next election grows.
“More than half of Canadians now believe the Conservatives are going to win the next federal election. Since January, expectations of a Conservative win have increased by 11-points. In contrast, 16% think the Liberals will win while 8% expect an NDP victory. 22% remain unsure.”
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “We don’t see any “Trump Bump” for the Liberals following Donald Trump’s election victory. Almost all of the key metrics from our survey before the election are unchanged.
“But for the first time in our tracking since the 2015 election, we have the NDP and Liberals tied nationally at 21% for second place. And today, more Canadians think the Conservatives are going to win the next election,” the pollster adds.
“Impressions of neither Justin Trudeau nor Pierre Poilievre have changed. We will have a deep dive on what Canadians think about who is best to deal with Trump and what approach they think the federal government should take later this week or Monday.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from November 14 to 19, 2024. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
Peter MacKay, left and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. (Contributed).
