- MacPolitics: A General Election Would Supercede By-Election – Poll Survey Reports Liberals ‘Likely To Win’ Halifax
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By Andrew Macdonald
The PM has called a by-election for April 14th, 2025, in the riding of Halifax.
But, many pundits think if Mark Carney wins the federal Liberal leadership on March 9th, he might call a general election on Sunday, March 23rd, 2025 – a day before Parliament resumes sitting, after being closed since Justin Trudeau’s January announcement to retire as PM effective the date Grits elect a new leader.
If a general election is called on March 23rd, it would cancel off the by-election in Halifax, and Haligonians would then vote in a general election.
Under the by-election, the old electoral map of Halifax rules and that means the subdivision of Fairmont remains in Halifax’s riding. But, under a general election, a new electoral map would put Fairmont under Halifax West.
Carney is now leading in recent polls, evaporating the 20 per cent lead Tory Pierre Poilievre had over the last year.
Poll Aggregator: Halifax ‘Likely Liberal Win’
A longstanding poll aggregator is getting a lot of talk from Liberal grassroots Haligonians.
The aggregator is 338.com, which analyzes various polls and uses statistics from previous elections.
338.com is reporting the riding of Halifax is a ‘likely Liberal win’ in the next election. It shows the Liberals with 45 per cent, the NDP in second spot with 33 per cent. The Conservatives are in third spot with 17 per cent in that riding.
On Saturday, Liberals gathered to pick a Halifax standard-bearer. There were four contenders for the nod – a sign of a rebirth in the local party since Trudeau announced in January he would resign as PM effective March 9th.
Prior to that, there were very little speculation on who would run for the Halifax Grits.
In the end, the Liberal nod for Halifax was won handily by Shannon Miedema, a climate change expert with Halifax Regional Municipality.
NDP candidate, Lisa Roberts, has been campaigning for over a year. She came within 1,000 votes of unseating Andy Fillmore in 2021.
Fillmore resigned from the Halifax seat that he held since 2015 and is now Mayor of HRM.
Roberts is a former NS NDP MLA.
Over the weekend, Roberts campaigned in Halifax, including glad handing with voters at Halifax’s Brewery Market. She was joined by NDP leader Jagmeet Singh.
The NDP held the seat from 1997 to 2015. The Liberals have held it since 2015.
Mark Boudreau is the Conservative candidate and he and his team have knocked on 10,000 doors. He has a young canvas team from Dalhousie University called the Boudreau Blue Crew.
Boudreau spent a decade at Loblaw at its regional Halifax offices as a spokesperson for the grocer. In that role, he worked closely with Loblaw and partnerships with Feed Nova Scotia & Hope Blooms, the inner-city youth salad dressing enterprise in Halifax.
Boudreau claims Liberals and NDP are backing his candidacy, and his message of being raised on a single mom’s reliance on food banks is resonating with some voters.
The Conservatives have not won Halifax since 1984.
Liberal Fortunes Rebound In Polling
A poll reported by Global TV, which it commissioned shows the Liberals are in first spot – as a 26 per cent lead held just six weeks ago by Pierre Poilievre evaporates into thin air.
The poll finds the Liberals with 38 per cent lead, the Conservatives with 36 per cent and the NDP at 12 per cent.
“After nearly four years of Conservative dominance in the polls, the Liberal Party of Canada has taken a two-point lead among decided voters, overturning a 26-point deficit from just six weeks ago. Support for the Bloc Québécois has declined (-3 points), while the
NDP vote continues to collapse (-4 points), further strengthening the Liberals,” the poll reported.
“The Conservatives (-5 points) are facing headwinds from rising anti-Trump sentiment and anticipation surrounding the Liberal Party’s new leadership,” the poll adds.
The poll was conducted by Ipsos between February 21 and 24, 2025, on behalf of Global News. “For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online.” The poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20,
had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled.
Liberals Begin Leadership Voting
There are 79,000 registered Liberals voting in the party’s leadership contest – “and since voting opened on Wednesday, nearly 55,000 Liberals have already cast their ballots for our next Liberal Leader,” the party said this past weekend.
“Registered Liberals must verify their identity to vote in the Liberal Leadership race by March 7 and can cast their ballots until (4pm Atlantic time) on March 9,” the Liberal party stated.
“The party also started airing a new television ad this week. The ad shows how Pierre Poilievre has been mimicking Donald Trump’s playbook over the last two years in an effort to divide Canadians. In this important and consequential moment, Pierre Poilievre can’t – and won’t – stand up for Canadians. He is the wrong choice at the wrong time,” the Liberal party added. Click here to see that advertisement on YouTube:
Shannon Miedema has been elected to the Halifax federal leadership post as a candidate for the Liberals. A federal by-election in Halifax has been called for April 14th, 2024. (Contributed).
NDP Halifax contender, Lisa Roberts, and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh. (Social Media)
At times, Mark Boudreau has 30 young folk, university students, knocking on doors for his Conservative candidacy in Halifax. Boudreau calls his canvasers Boudreau’s Blue Team. (Social media).
