- Poll Aggregator: Carney Liberals in Majority Terrain
By Andrew Macdonald
Newly minted Prime Minister, Mark Carney is expected to call the federal vote for April 28th, when he meets with the Governor General today (Sunday, March 23rd, 2025) to drop the writ.
Polls show Carney with a lead as the 20 point lead that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre held over the last year has evaporated.
Poll aggregator 338.com puts the Carney Liberals in majority terrain. Its latest election forecast has the Liberals receiving 178 seats. The Conservatives could see 131 seats and the NDP with only seven seats. “A majority government has more than half of the seats in the House of Commons: at least 170 out of 338 seats,” says Parliament.
338.com says 84 seats are “safe” for the Liberals, 59 seats are “likely” for the Liberals, 25 seats “leaning” towards the party and ten seats are a “toss up”.
338.com aggregates various political polls and uses stats from the previous 2021 election. It does not conduct its own polling relying instead on polling companies to do that.
Nova Scotia’s 11 ridings
The poll aggregator suggests the former riding of West Nova, held by Chris d’Entremont is a “toss up” between the Conservatives and Liberals. This riding has been rebranded Acadie—Annapolis.
Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish is “likely” to elect a Liberal. This is a riding where former NS Finance Minister, Allan MacMaster is the standard-bearer. The Liberals do not have a contender.
According to 338.com, Central Nova is “likely” to go Liberal. It has been Sean Fraser’s seat since 2015, but he is not running again. Liberals are encouraging Barney’s River Fire Chief Joe MacDonald to run for them in this seat. He was elected a Pictou County Councillor in last fall’s election.
Surprisingly, 338.com suggests a “toss up” between the Liberals and Conservatives in Cumberland Colchester, the seat is currently held by Conservative MP Dr. Stephen Ellis.
The forecast the poll aggregator has for Dartmouth-Cole Harbour is that this riding is a “safe” Liberal seat, currently held by Liberal Darren Fisher.
Andy Fillmore’s former seat of Halifax is ranked by 338.com as a “safe” Liberal seat. Fillmore held the seat from 2015 to 2024, resigning to successfully run for Mayor of HRM. NDP candidate Lisa Roberts has been campaigning for a second attempt at becoming HFX MP. The Conservatives have nominated Mark Boudreau.
The Liberal candidate in Halifax is Shannon Meidema, who does not live in the riding, but actually lives in Dartmouth. Her campaign manager was Sean Fraser’s powerful chief of staff, Savannah DeWolfe.
In Halifax West, 338.com, calls Halifax West a “safe” Liberal seat, held by Grit incumbent Lena Metlege Diab. Her Conservative opponent is Rob Batherson.
In Kings Hants, the seat is considered a “safe” seat, held by Liberal Kody Blois, the new Agriculture Minister.
Sackville—Bedford—Preston is considered a “safe” seat. Former NS Liberal MLA Braedon Clark is running in this seat, where Conservative standard-bearer is David Carroll, a musician.
In the riding of NS South Shore, 338.com has this seat “leaning” Liberal. It is currently held by incumbent Tory Rick Perkins, who is a natural-born politician and I would not count him out yet. The Liberal challenger is Jessica Fancy-Landry.
338.com has Sydney Glace Bay as a “likely” Liberal win. Two current Liberal MPs are running for the new riding, where boundaries were changed by a federal electoral commission. MPs Mike Kelloway and Jaime Battiste have said they will run in the newly drawn riding.
