MacPolitics: Sports Betting Site: More Money To Be Made On “Surprise Conservative Win’ – This Means The Betting Model Suggests An Acutal Liberal Win
By Andrew Macdonald
This story has been updated at 1: 30 pm, to reflect how sports betting works.
While political opinion polls lean towards either a Liberal majority or Liberal minority, a betting site is also favouring a Liberal win – in a way.
But, sports betting enthusiasts are putting their money with a surprise Tory win. That is where they see serious money being made.
While U.S. opinion polls leaned towards a Presidential win by Democrat Kamala Harris, to the regret of the world, Donald Trump won both the popular vote and the Electoral College, although lost in most details is that Trump’s popular vote margin was only a slim 1.5 per cent. But, nonetheless, a win, and gamblers in the U.S., depending on the size of their bet, made serious money of the Trump surprise win.
And, now sports betting sites – where people make money on this form of gambling – are hoping for a Conservative win. And, the smart money is being placed on a possible surprise Tory majority win.
A Conservative minority bet has a return rate of $5. A Liberal minority bets returns are lower at $4. But, a Conservative majority return bet is priced at a high of $7, while a Liberal majority return bet is priced downward at $1.80.
Popular Vote Bet
That is also a higher rate of bet return on the Conservatives getting the most popular vote tonight. The rate of return on a dollar bet is priced at $2.75, favouring the Tories taking more popular votes. The rate of return on the Liberals taking the popular vote is pegged below that at $1.40.
Betting site BTMmgm has a 3.75x payout in the Conservatives winning the most seats, that means if you bet a dollar on them winning, you’d win 2 dollars and 75 cents.
The Liberals have a 1.25x payout, that means if you put a dollar down on the Liberals you’d only win 25 cents.
The odds of a party getting the most seats has an inverse relationship with the payout calculation, so by giving the Liberals a low payout multiplier, BTMmgm shows that their prediction is that the Liberals will win the most seats. You bet on the loser and in a surprise win, you make more money if the loser wins.
A sports betting site is hoping for a Conservative win in today’s election. The odds, according to the online betting site, favour a Liberal win, in terms of how sports betting’s model works.
