By Andrew Macdonald
Last weekend, Dale Palmeter predicted a Liberal majority, for Mark Carney. But the Liberals ended the week with 169 MPs elected, three short of a majority, after Ontario’s Milton East—Halton Hills South riding flipped to the Liberals in a vote validation process.
Palmeter is a Liberal strategist and party insider. He began political toiling in 1988 with the late great Ron Russell, as a Tory. He converted to the Liberals in 2003, after the Progressive Conservative party and Canadian Alliance merged to form the current Conservative Party. Palmeter was the main reason why Scott Brison won elections from 1997 to 2019.
Here is a QandA with Dale Palmeter on the election:
The Notebook: You predicted a Liberal majority government. What happened?
Palmeter: “Yes, I thought the outcome would be a Liberal majority government. I said that months ago when the prospect of a Carney candidacy for Liberal leader was first mentioned. It was close, but four seats short (reduced to three in recount). Carney obviously connected with Canadians, no question. The party went from winning a projected 50-odd seats before the change in leadership to winning 168 on election day. That’s a huge turnaround. I had several Conservative friends tell me that Liberal support would be a mile wide and an inch deep and that it would end similarly to Kim Campbell and John Turner. It would seem they made the larger miscalculation.”
The Notebook: But was a majority ever possible? Pollsters suggested it was likely to be a majority Liberal government, and they got it wrong, too.
Palmeter: “Yes, a Liberal majority was possible. I never attached the percentage probability of that outcome to my prediction, perhaps I should have. The pollsters had an out, as I don’t think any of them predicted with 100 per cent certainty that the outcome would be a Liberal victory. The fact is the Liberal Party did very well in Atlantic Canada, in Nova Scotia defeating two incumbent Conservatives and almost defeating the third, gained more seats in Quebec, and did better in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and British Columbia. But the party came up short in Ontario. In Vaughan-Woodbridge for example, the incumbent Liberal MP lost the seat by 15,000 votes, a seat won in 2015, 2019, and 2021. I am betting that no one saw that coming. And the reason for that, and for other similar losses in seats in the 905, is something that will have to be reviewed.”
The Notebook: What do you think the reasons could be?
Palmeter: “I am told that immigration levels in that part of Canada outpaced the ability to serve the needs of those new Canadians and created negative feelings generally in the wider population. And crime was an issue in a way that it wasn’t elsewhere. On issues like automobile thefts for example, the Liberals were not seen as either recognizing the problem or providing adequate solutions.”
The Notebook: Will Nova Scotia get two seats at the Carney cabinet table?
Palmeter: “I have no idea who will be sitting at the cabinet table other than I think Prime Minister Carney will be consistent in his approach with the cabinet he selected in March and lean toward a smaller size cabinet than has been the case through successive recent governments.”
Long-time Liberal strategist Dale Palmeter, left, with Kody Blois, a cabinet minister, and Prime Minister-elect Mark Carney.
For last weekend’s story on Palmeter’s prediction for a Liberal Majority, in case you missed that story, here it is:
Reader Alert: This is a multi-coffee read
By Andrew Macdonald
On Saturday night, when I was waiting for trusted CAA to attend to my parked car, as I stupidly locked my keys it, I took the time to call Liberal strategist Dale Palmeter. I asked if he stands by his comments from a Notebook February story that Mark Carney can and will defeat Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
“I said it in February, and I will say it again tonight, the election is going to produce a Liberal majority,” he insists.
During the recent Liberal leadership race, back in February, I reported Palmeter was backing Carney for the job.
We will find out tomorrow night if Palmeter is bang on or dead wrong in his election forecast. But, Palmeter knows a thing or two about elections and politics.
Dale Palmeter is a Liberal strategist who suggests Mark Carney will win a Liberal majority in Monday’s election.
A Liberal since 2003, he began his political toiling for the legendary man from Hants County: Ron Russell in 1988. Russell was a key member of John Buchanan’s government, and Palmeter was Russell’s political aide.
In February, following reporting in The Notebook noting Liberal insider and campaign veteran Dale Palmeter is backing Liberal leadership contender, Mark Carney, The Notebook conducted a Q&A with Grit strategist Palmeter
The Notebook: Why do you think Mark Carney is the right choice for Liberal leader?
Palmeter: “Mark Carney is a uniquely qualified individual for public office. He has a depth of understanding of not just the country but also of the policies that are necessary to strengthen the economy and to improve the standard of living of all Canadians.
“He has a skill set which, at this moment in our history, people may think will be good for the country.”
The Notebook: Why not Freeland?
Palmeter: “Freeland is a skilled politician who also has a deep understanding of public policy. She was a highly accomplished journalist before entering politics, and she has a deep understanding of foreign policy. The Liberal Party is fortunate to have candidates of such calibre in the contest.
“But in politics, timing is everything, and I think Carney is probably better positioned to offer the solutions to the problems people see today and to make the Liberals competitive in a general election.”
The Notebook: Do you think Carney can beat Poilievre?
Palmeter: “Absolutely, Carney could beat Poilievre. Carney exudes warmth, kindness, and compassion and is also extremely talented. To have served as the governor of two central banks is unprecedented in the world. And this is a guy who was born in the Northwest Territories and who grew up in Edmonton.
“His father ran as a Liberal candidate in Edmonton in the 1980 federal election under Pierre Trudeau, and fast forward 45 years and the PC candidate who defeated his father in that election showed up at Carney’s recent campaign launch in Edmonton to endorse him.
“I don’t think voters believe rabid partisanship will solve the challenges we are facing today as a country; I think they will attach real value to experienced leadership.”
The Notebook: Hasn’t Trudeau made winning an impossible task for the Liberal Party?
Palmeter: “The past is the past. Voters in 2025 will be looking at who can lead them through the challenges that lie ahead. Different problems today require different skills to solve them. Justin Trudeau concluded that voters didn’t think it could be him, and now he is off the ballot. Justin Trudeau was probably the only person, though, who could have reinvigorated the Liberal party and taken it to government in 2015.
“Remember, the party entered the 2015 election with 35 seats and finished it with 184 seats. Unheard of. The Liberal party may be down today, but I think it will be found that reports of its death are greatly exaggerated.
“As we look at the choices ahead now, I think there is a real opportunity for Carney to earn the support of Canadians in an election. And elections matter.
The Notebook: Carney was just in Nova Scotia. How did that go?
Palmeter: “With two days’ notice, campaign organizers pulled together events that I am told drew hundreds of people. There is clearly a real curiosity and interest in meeting Mr. Carney and in hearing what he has to say. From Halifax to Enfield, Truro and Amherst, I am hearing that organizers were shocked at the number of people coming out in late January with just a few hours’ notice. It is going to be a whirlwind leadership campaign for sure, but rarely has a candidate of such calibre stepped forward, and given what is happening south of our border, there probably has never been a time in our history where that calibre of leadership may be considered so necessary.”
Dale Palmeter is a Liberal strategist who is supporting Liberal Mark Carney. The Notebook
Since the March 22, 2017 launch of The Macdonald Notebook, we have written a total of 8,997 stories – most by me, several hundred by contributors.
I tell you this fact because the name ‘Dale Palmeter’ appears 132 times in the last eight years in The Notebook. In comparison, the name ‘Rob Batherson’, the Tory operative and now candidate for Halifax West, appears 213 times in our publishing history.
Those are low figures compared to the name ‘Mulroney’, which since 2017, has appeared in 839 Notebook news articles.
The story of the election is that Mark Carney has evaporated the 20 per cent lead Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has enjoyed the last two years. Now, Carney is leading the polls.
In 2023, I spoke to Palmeter, and that story was headlined:
MacPolitics: Liberal Insider Dale Palmeter On PM Trudeau, Opinion Polls.
(For a historical perspective, this story is worthy of reading on the eve of Monday’s vote)
By Andrew Macdonald – 2023-11-11
Back in 2023, I featured Conservative strategist and party insider Chad Bowie on the state of federal politics related to then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and opinion polls.
Since 2023 Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has been leading in various polls, which show him 10-12 percentage points ahead of the Trudeau Liberals.
In 2023, I featured Liberal strategist and party insider Dale Palmeter on Trudeau’s future and the polls.
Palmeter was chief of staff to Scott Brison from 1997 to 2019, and managed seven winning campaigns for Brison, a Tory turned Liberal politician.
Palmeter is a senior consulting advisor with Crestview Strategies, based at its Halifax office. While the firm does lobbying work, he is not a lobbyist.
In 2023, I asked Palmeter if Trudeau would run again. “That is Trudeau’s decision to make. He says he is going to run again.”
Trudeau has been the federal Liberal leader for 10 years and PM for three terms or seven years.
Then I asked Palmeter if Trudeau should run again.
“He has proven himself an effective campaigner through a number of elections,” replied Palmeter.
Asked about Trudeau being behind the Tories in opinion polling of late, Palmeter says: “Every government suffers at some point from voter fatigue, and has a shelf life. “
“I think at this point in time, Canadians are very concerned about the economy. They are very concerned about their own economic fortunes, whether they will have a job tomorrow, whether they can afford food, whether their kids can afford a house (and) young people whether they can afford to buy their first house.
“These issues around affordability are top of mind and the government needs to be able to show, to demonstrate, they are in-tune and in touch with that reality,” says Palmeter.
“I do not think Pierre Poilievre has made the case that Canadians should elect him as their prime minister. I think Canadians are frustrated with economic issues and world affairs issues — we have now a crisis in the Middle East. These are all unsettling things, there is just uncertainty and that requires a response from the government,” said Palmeter – again this was a 2023 Notebook archived story.
“Is there a likelihood that if the government changed tomorrow that inflation would drop and affordability issues go away? That is unlikely. We will have to see what Pierre Poilievre’s policy prescriptives are in a campaign. At this point, he says he is just going to axe the tax (get rid of the carbon tax).
“The election is two years away, so he will have to come up with a substantive policy platform,” said Palmeter two years ago.
Since the summer of 2023, the federal Tories have spent multi-millions of dollars on advertising campaigns with a single focus to kill the carbon tax. The federal Liberals have not responded in kind with their own advertising touting national policies and programs.
Palmeter said back then he believes that with Poilievre rising in the polls, “the Ottawa press gallery will put a stronger focus on what he would do as prime minister because I do not think he has yet articulated what he will do…beyond ‘axing the tax’.”
In 2023, I reported “Meanwhile, The Globe and Mail recently reported that former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has not ruled out a run for the Liberal leadership whenever that post opens up.”
I asked Palmeter about the prospect of a Carney leadership bid in a 2023 chat.
“Mark Carney is a person of tremendous intellect and accomplishment and we would collectively benefit from having more people like him choose a career in politics. In politics, timing is everything, and with the economy becoming the central issue, it might be the right time for someone with his ability to get more involved, but that could simply be by running for a seat in the House of Commons,” added Palmeter.
- MacPolitics: Electioneering Redemption For Liberal Strategist Dale Palmeter & Joanne Macrae
By Andrew Macdonald – 2024-10-20
Liberal strategists Dale Palmeter & Joanne Macrae took significant criticism as the co-campaign managers for NS Liberal leader Iain Rankin’s election loss in 2021.
Rankin called the NS vote for August 17th, 2021 on the period where he had a 12 point lead – and back on June 3rd 2021 the lead was 28 points.
In these pages, late 50-year-long journalist, Al Hollingsworth once wrote a Notebook opinion piece suggesting Palmeter’s time was up as a Liberal strategist.
And, former McNeil cabinet minister Andrew Younger in these pages had criticisms for Macrae.
But, now there is political redemption for Palmeter and Macrae – because they were organizers for HRM Mayoral Contender Andy Fillmore’s winning campaign. They orchestrated for Fillmore a rather convincing win.
While 200 supporters of Fillmore gathered to celebrate his mayoral campaign – he took 42.4 per cent of the vote – at the Lions Head Tavern, Palmeter was front and centre at the victory party.
As for Joanne Macrae, she served as winning campaign manager for Fillmore’s mayoral bid. She is now Fillmore’s Mayoral chief of staff.
It’s the second election win for Macrae and Palmeter since they failed to elect Iain Rankin in 2021.
In the last federal vote, the political power duo ensured Fillmore won the election in Halifax with a 1,300 vote lead in a race pundits forecast as being tight in 2021’s federal vote.
Palmeter not only organized with the Fillmore campaign, he also organized the campaign for Kody Blois, who won by a large commanding 3,000 vote lead in Kings Hants – the former riding of Scott Brison in the federal vote in 2021.
Joanne Macrae organized Andy Fillmore’s successful HRM Mayoral campaign as his campaign manager. The Notebook photo
So, now, following the HRM mayor win and the federal vote win in 2021, Palmeter could again by showing his political acumen, if as he said last night (Saturday, April 27th, 2025) Carney wins a majority Liberal government.
Time will tell tomorrow night, Monday night, when the polls close, just how true or wrong Palemeter’s election forecast outcome is.
Stay tuned!
