- MacPolitics: A Tory Chat With Rob Batherson: Stunning Collapse Of NDP Means Conservatives Have To Learn How To Campaign In Two-Party Race
By Andrew Macdonald
The election in Halifax West saw incumbent Liberal MP Lena Metlege Diab take a commanding first-place finish.
She got 32,200 ballots, or received 65.60 per cent of the vote, increasing her margin over 2021 by 18.04.
Second place finisher, Rob Batherson, who has toiled in Tory politics over the last 30-years, took 15,020 votes, or 27,22 per cent. He increased the Conservative vote in the riding from 2021 by 5.67.
It is clear that voters in Halifax West, at least core NDP supporters, strategically voted for the Liberals in an effort to stop Pierre Poilievre.
The NDP result on April 28th dropped a staggering 20.41 per cent, with candidate Rae Tench taking 3,083 votes, or 5.59 per cent of the ballots.
Batherson is a former president of the Conservative Party of Canada and also a former NS Progressive Conservative Party president.
He operates a PR agency and lobby business in Halifax. One of his clients is Peter Polley, of Pollycorp developments.
With the national Conservatives winning 144 seats and besting their past record in 1988 on popular vote margins, some folks think the Conservatives are poised to win the next election, because by then, the Liberals would have been in office for four terms.
“I live in Halifax West, I am not going anywhere,” Batherson tells The Macdonald Notebook. I wonder if that is a precursor to another election run, whenever the next election is called, whether in two years time or four years time
He cut his Tory teeth with one of the great NS premiers in contemporary times, John Hamm.
“We had a great team, we had a well-financed campaign, lots of support and (attracted) a lot of new people (to politics) who were energized, and it’s a great foundation to build on,” Batherson tells The Macdonald Notebook.
That sounds like Batherson is already beginning the next campaign.
“I think what we have seen is likely a permanent realignment. The NDP are essentially gone….The Conservative vote in Nova Scotia went up 7 per cent. So our popular vote went up, but we lost two seats – in Rick (Perkins) and Stephen Ellis.”
Perkins lost to the Liberal Jessica Fancy-Landry on the South shore, and Ellis lost in Cumberland-Colchester to the Liberals, where candidate Alana Hirtle won the most seats.
Both Fancy-Landry and Hirtle are Liberal political rookies.
“The NDP vote in Nova Scotia went from 22 per cent – and that vote almost entirely went Liberal,” explains Batherson.
So what does that mean for the Tories, if NDP voters strategically voted for Liberal leader Mark Carney?
“I would say the big challenge for the Conservatives going forward in what essentially becomes a two-party system, how do we swing a significant per centage of votes away from the Liberals to be competitive,” adds Batherson.
“Certainly, the Conservatives were successful in Southern Ontario and in parts of the Greater Toronto area, where a lot of private sector union members, new Canadians and others switched from the NDP to the Conservatives, and that is why we saw the gains that we did…” One NDP MP for over 20 years in Ontario, lost his seat to the Conservatives.
“Here in Nova Scotia, we – and by we, I mean the federal party and the leadership, but also those of us on the ground providing our insights as to what works. We have to devise an approach to win seats in a two party system, because we can’t sit around and wait for the NDP to come back.”
“This is a historic collapse. Whether they come back, how they come back, that will be up to the few New Democrats who are left to figure out,” Batherson tells The Macdonald Notebook.
“As Conservatives, we have to find a way to expand our accessible voting pool to deal with what is becoming a two-party system.”
Batherson says “the door is still open” to a future campaign involving him. “I received a lot of encouragement to build on this foundation for the next time.”
Batherson does not think the NDP and Bloc “are clamouring” for another election, adding “it is too soon to say how long this Parliament will last. But our job as the Opposition is to be ready.”
While the Carney Liberals fell four seats away from a majority, “for all intents and purpose, I would say they have a practical majority in place, even if it is not a numerical majority.”
Batherson “is not really shocked” by the loss for Perkins and Ellis, but does add he is “shocked in terms because I know what great MPs they were.”
“We talk of the NDP collapse – that is clearly something that hurt both Rick and Stephen. Rick had the same per centage of the vote as last time, last time he won, this time he lost. So, again that NDP vote completely evaporated and reappeared under the Liberal banner.”
Batherson says he wonders why the NDP exists if they are just propping up the Liberals, as leader Jagmeet Singh did with Prime Minister Trudeau. “I think (NDP) voters said, ‘I might as just well vote Liberal.”
“Look at Halifax, Lisa Roberts went from almost winning the seat in 2021 to coming in third place.” Roberts was the NDP standard-bearer.
“I never thought that we’d ever see a time where the NDP only got 16 per cent in the federal riding of Halifax.”
“This is our new reality at the federal level,” with campaigns between the Liberals and Conservatives.
Tory leader Pierre Poilievre won 144 seats – more than in 2021 while his party’s popular support broke records set in 1988.
I asked Batherson if Poilievre wins the right to lead the Conservatives into the next election.
Batherson replies to my question: “Yes, I issued a public statement of support on social media in support of Pierre’s leadership. I think he is just getting warmed up.”
Batherson sighs as an example of the diverse ethnic riding of Halifax West, where he met a lot of new immigrants, who could not vote this time, but are likely to become Canadian citizens by the time the next election is held.
“And, I will tell you they are all supportive of the Conservative message, but they could not vote (April 28th). That is a huge long-term opportunity.”
“I think we also have a tremendous opportunity among first-time young voters, first-time new Canadian voters and likely first-time voters in the next election who are all inspired because of Pierre Poilievre’s leadership,” adds Batherson.
“As he said on election night, change sometimes takes time, and I think he is the best person to build that winning Conservative coalition. Absolutely he has earned the right to lead.”
“As a party federally, we have to stop swapping out leaders. So, we keep changing leaders after every election (Scheer, O’Toole). Why don’t we let someone have another shot to build on their successes, learn from where they came up short and then close the deal with Canadians,” adds Batherson.
Would Erin O’Toole or Andrew Scheer have won the April 28th vote?
Batherson replies: “I don’t know. I don’t know. But, certainly neither Erin nor Andrew Scheer before him had that level of connection with young voters, working class voters and newcomers than Pierre Poilievre had.”
If there was another week left of the April 28th vote, Batherson thinks “possibly” it would have produced a Conservative government. “I think possibly, I think possibly. I think the more voters focused on change and replacing a ten year old government and less on Donald Trump and the perception that Mark Carney is best placed to deal with him.”
“Obviously, change was the Conservative winning issue and that fear of Donald Trump was the willing Liberal issue. And, so the more time spent on the former, the better off the Conservatives would have done.”
“But, you know what, Donald Trump clearly had a preference for Mark Carney. And, every time he shot his mouth off, that helped Mark Carney. Of course, we saw Donald Trump saying yet again how he preferred Mark Carney and that Pierre Polievre hated Donald Trump more than Mark Carney did. That is just the reality.”
“In many ways, I was not running against Lena Metlege Diab or Mark Carney, I think every Conservative in candidate was running against Donald Trump, the fear of Donald Trump, and the perception that Mark Carney was best placed to deal with Donald Trump.”
Halifax West Conservative candidate Rob Batheron, with his Hammonds Plains canvass team. (social media).
