- Pollster Canvas Support for Tim Houston As National Conservative leader, among others
By Andrew Macdonald
A pollster has surveyed what kind of support Nova Scotia PC Premier Tim Houston would get if he ran for the national Conservative post.
Abacus Data, in conjunction with The Toronto Star, asked the question: Who would become Conservative leader if Pierre Poilievre were not the leader?
The poll found that “Poilievre remains the strongest option. With him as leader, the Conservatives secure 38% of the vote, narrowly ahead of the Carney-led Liberals at 36%.”
Abacus found that former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper “polls at 34% — a four-point drop from Poilievre — despite being the most well-known and best-liked name tested.” (net favourability +11). His appeal skews older and is strongest in Alberta but doesn’t translate into a stronger national showing.”
“Doug Ford, Ontario’s premier, draws 31% of the national vote. Although his net favourability is positive (+6), 31% of past Conservative voters say they’d be undecided or support another party under his leadership. In Ontario, Ford would trail Carney’s Liberals by four points.”
Jason Kenney, former Alberta premier and Conservative cabinet minister, earns 30%. “His overall impressions are mildly negative (–3), and his hypothetical performance is eight points below Poilievre. Support among former Conservative voters also softens.”
Caroline Mulroney performs similarly to Kenney, attracting 29%. “She holds a mildly positive favourability rating (+6) but lacks intensity or name recognition outside of Ontario or Quebec. About 17% of past Conservative supporters say they would be undecided under her leadership.”
Michelle Rempel Garner scores 28% nationally, with a net favourability of +4. Half of Canadians say they don’t know enough about her to have an opinion. Even among past Conservative voters, her support base is more hesitant than with Poilievre or Harper,” adds Abacus.
Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston (27%) and businessperson Mark Mulroney (27%) perform at nearly identical levels. “Both have relatively low national profiles. Houston has a slightly higher favourability score (+8), but that’s largely concentrated in Atlantic Canada,” the poll reports.
Jamil Jivani, a first-term MP, garners 24%. “He’s viewed neutrally and remains largely undefined in the eyes of voters. Among young men, however, his numbers are comparatively stronger, suggesting early-stage potential but limited reach today.”
Melissa Lantsman brings in just 23% of the vote. “Despite a growing media profile and a positive favourability rating (+6), 45% of past Conservative voters say they would either vote elsewhere or are unsure if she led the party. Just 2% of past Liberal voters would switch under her leadership,” adds the pollster.
“Across all these scenarios, one theme stands out. Leaders who are well known perform better but not necessarily better than Poilievre. And those who are lesser known suffer from steep drops in support, even when their personal images are relatively positive.”
“In Poilievre’s case, definition is everything. His image may divide voters, but it also crystallizes the Conservative identity. It gives potential supporters a clear idea of what they’re buying. By contrast, candidates like Houston, Mulroney, Lantsman, and Jivani see undecided rates spike dramatically, often reaching 15 to 20%, compared with just 10% under Poilievre,” says Abacus.
“The issue isn’t necessarily that Canadians dislike the alternatives. In many cases, they just don’t know them. And when voters don’t know a leader, they default to caution, not curiosity.”
The Liberal Factor: Carney’s Consistent Strength
In every hypothetical match-up, the Liberals under Mark Carney perform consistently in the mid to high 30s, whether the Conservatives are led by Poilievre, Harper, or Javani. In fact, in nine of the ten match-ups, the Liberals would finish ahead – except in the match-up with Poilievre, the poll reports.
“That stability underscores Carney’s own appeal, but it also highlights a deeper dynamic. The current Liberal base isn’t especially reactive to changes in Conservative leadership. Replacing Poilievre doesn’t cause Liberal support to collapse. If anything, it often strengthens it.”
“In part, that may reflect Poilievre’s success in energizing his own base while drawing intense opposition. His removal may soften that pushback, but it also dulls the contrast that defines the political choice for many voters,” says Abacus
The Upshot
“This survey doesn’t suggest that Pierre Poilievre is irreplaceable. But it does show that no other current Conservative figure performs better today and most would do worse.”
“Poilievre’s brand carries both upside and risk. He is not universally liked, but he is vividly defined. And in the absence of a national figure who combines charisma, clarity, and cross-partisan appeal, the party’s best-performing option remains its current leader.”
“It’s possible that some of the lesser-known figures in our survey will grow into leadership contenders with broader appeal. But for now, their potential is speculative, while Poilievre’s performance is proven.”
“The Conservatives face a familiar political trade-off: stick with a polarizing figure who drives turnout and energizes the base, or gamble on a fresh face who may not be ready for prime time or cause a portion of the existing base to exit the Conservative tent or just not vote at all. For now, the data suggest that the party’s ceiling and floor are both tied closely to Poilievre. Without him, the base may mostly stay intact, but the reach would not automatically expand”, reports Abacus.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,922 Canadian adults from October 24 to 29, 2025. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is ±1.8%, 19 times out of 20.
The poll was conducted before the budget was introduced and before NS MP Chris d’Entremont left the Conservative party to become a Liberal MP.
PC Leader Tim Houston at a Bedford West restaurant, during a campaign whistlestop a year ago. (The Notebook).
